Just two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
