Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
